The Cost of Iraq War II
Richard Posner gives his analysis of estimates of Iraq War II costs. It’s good reading.
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Clearly, aggregate costs to the United States have been considerable, and they will continue to rise as the insurrection persists and additional lives are lost. These costs include the military equipment lost during the war and subsequent fighting, the value placed on deaths and injuries, increased depreciation of military equipment, higher cost of attracting enlistments to the military, and reconstruction aid to Iraq.
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I tentatively conclude from these two studies that the cost of the war will amount to somewhere between $500 and $850 billion, taking account of the loss in life and injuries. These are certainly high numbers, and generally much larger than initially estimated by the administration and many outsiders. Has the war been worth its cost? The American people are increasingly expressing grave doubts about that. I do not know the answer to this question, but whether the war was justified depends on how the Iraqi situation plays out, and what would have happened had we not gone to war.
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Still, I believe the war should be assessed a bad failure if Iraq degenerates into civil war that leads before very long to another brutal dictatorial regime. On the other hand, if Iraq stabilizes reasonably soon, has a decent government, and starts to progress economically, the war would have been a success. I say this not only because the war got rid of a cruel and dangerous dictator who inflicted immense harm on his own people, and who would have used highly destructive weapons on others if he ever obtained them. In addition, a stable and progressive Iraq is likely to have beneficial effects on Syria, Saudi Arabia, and other bad regimes in the Middle East that will directly benefit the whole free world, possibly including creating a background for a peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
It could be a decade or more before the ultimate verdict about the war is available. The future looks precarious at present, but it is too early to throw in the towel and conclude that the war was a costly failure.