Jean-Claude Trichet on the economy. (Gloomy outlook)
Jean-Claude Trichet’s statement after the 75-basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank.
My opinion: things look pretty grim. This 75-basis point rate cut (3/4 of one percent) “follows the two 50-basis point reductions in the key ECB interest rates announced on 8 October and 6 November 2008.”
[snip] (emphasis added)
Since September [2008], there has been an intensification and broadening of the financial market turmoil. Tensions have increasingly spilled over from the financial sector to the real economy, and the world economy as a whole is feeling their adverse effects. In the euro area, a number of the downside risks to economic activity that were identified previously have materialised, leading in the third quarter to a contraction of 0.2% in real GDP growth, on a quarterly basis, according to Eurostat’s first estimate. Available survey data and the monthly indicators for October and November suggest that economic activity has weakened further during the fourth quarter of 2008.
Looking further ahead, on the basis of our current analysis and assessment, we see global economic weakness and very sluggish domestic demand persisting in the next few quarters. According to the December 2008 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, a subsequent recovery should then gradually take place, supported by the fall in commodity prices and assuming that the external environment improves and the financial tensions weaken.
Eurosystem staff project annual real GDP growth of between 0.8% and 1.2% for 2008, between -1.0% and 0.0% for 2009, and between 0.5% and 1.5% for 2010. These figures represent substantial downward revisions relative to the previous ECB staff projections for 2008 and 2009 published in September. Forecasts by international organisations have also been revised downwards and are broadly in line with the December 2008 Eurosystem staff projections.
In the view of the Governing Council, the economic outlook remains surrounded by an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty. Risks to economic growth lie on the downside. They relate mainly to the potential for a more significant impact on the real economy of the turmoil in financial markets, as well as concerns about protectionist pressures and possible disorderly developments owing to global imbalances.